A few years ago I read the book “The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century” by George Friedman. It was a fun book, in part because the author was transparent about it being ridiculous to predict 100-year trends. That allowed the book to be less about the specifics and more about geopolitical trends that the author explained via detailed predictions.

Then recently I saw that Friedman has come out with a new book titled The Next Decade: Empire and Republic in a Changing World. It was also a fun read, though I don’t take too much of it seriously. Predicting the future has never worked well for geopolitical pundits.

The value of the book is less about the details and more about a call for America to grow up. I know, that sounds odd, but it’s true. America, Friedman would assert, is still a very young country. Over the centuries we have benefitted from our unique geographic location to avoid a lot of international entanglements. Over the past 75 years or so we have been more engaged internationally, but we had the advantage of being the richest and most powerful nation. That let us set our own rules.

But times have changed. The world is smaller, obviously, and we cannot avoid international connections. Nor can we be the rich kid on the block that demands whatever he wants. Just as it is silly to think we can control the world, it is ridiculous to think that we could ever disengage from the world (Friedman points out that we are 25% of the global economy). Our understanding of the world needs to more nuanced, guided by our moral principles but balanced realities.

Some of the books predictions seem reasonable. For instance, Friedman asserts that more than any other factor, the character, wisdom and vision of our Presidents will guide America through the future. He predicts that we will build stronger relationships with Australia (which we did after his book came out), South Korea, and Singapore. Geopolitically, that makes a lot of sense too.

Other points seem a bit stretched. Friedman states that many global institutions (NATO, the UN, perhaps even the EU) have not fulfilled their potential and will (or should) be abandoned. That Germany and Russia will grow close together and we need to counter this by a strong relationship with Poland. That Japan will be a naval threat, and China’s growth will slow or even decline. That America should reconsider its support of Israel. All of this in the next decade.

Perhaps he’s right. I could seem elements of all that happen. But it seems unlikely to happen to the exactness of his predictions.

Still, it’s fun reading and thought provoking. And I don’t think Friedman really cares if his exact predictions happen or not … I think he’s trying to make broad points about his geopolitical vision of the future. It’s an interesting approach!