Superforecasting

What is Superforecasting? Well imagine the ability to consistently predict world events, or the stock market, or even an election. Philip Tetlock has spent the last decade overseeing a government funded contest to see who the best forecasters really are. And the findings are in the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

Asking very specific questions, such as will North Korea detonate a nuclear bomb between January and March, Tetlock was able to track forecasters without giving them a lot of wiggle room. He takes on the television pundits who boldly predict world events but state those predictions with subtle caveats.

What I liked best about this book was the insights gathered about what methods the best forecasters use. Unsurprisingly, it often comes down to logic, process, and the ability to admit mistakes. This is where the book shines because it points out how muddled our thinking can be  — and offers ways to create clarity.

In this election season, when cable news “experts” are going to be making a lot of predictions, we need a healthy dose of reality. Superforecasting can help. I recommend reading it, especially before the election cycle gets really nuts in the Fall!