What is Superforecasting? Well imagine the ability to consistently predict world events, or the stock market, or even an election. Philip Tetlock has spent the last decade overseeing a government funded contest to see who the best forecasters really are. And the findings are in the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
Asking very specific questions, such as will North Korea detonate a nuclear bomb between January and March, Tetlock was able to track forecasters without giving them a lot of wiggle room. He takes on the television pundits who boldly predict world events but state those …